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Beyond the Cone of Uncertainty: Exploring the Flexibility of Animated Risk Trajectories for Improving Hurricane Risk Communication
DescriptionHurricanes are powerful storms resulting in extensive and costly damage (NOAA). Often, hurricane forecasts are communicated through the cone of uncertainty (CoU), which is susceptible to the containment effect. The present work tested the CoU against a dynamic set of ensembles, referred to as Animated Risk Trajectories (ARTs), which depicted the possible hurricane trajectory using slow, medium, and fast speeds. Participants viewed either the CoU or ARTs visualization and had to indicate whether a town should be evacuated. Overall, the ARTs, regardless of the speed of the icons, consistently mitigated the containment effect better than the CoU. However, speed alone did not differentially convey various levels of risk. Further examining which visual features of ARTs, like color or size, can be used to convey additional storm information is important for developing more effective and nuanced ways to enhance public safety and response to hurricane-prone regions.
Event Type
Industry/Practitioner Case Study
Lecture
TimeThursday, September 12th11:35am - 11:55am MST
LocationFLW Salon I
Tracks
Perception and Performance